Context:

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and Arsenal are set to face off in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal, with the winner advancing to the final against Inter Milan. PSG secured a narrow 1-0 victory in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium, thanks to Ousmane Dembele's early goal, leaving the tie open for the second leg in Paris. Both teams have missed significant opportunities to score, highlighting the potential for a more explosive match. The odds have shifted toward Arsenal, who are dealing with injuries but remain formidable under Mikel Arteta's leadership. Key players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Nuno Mendes are expected to influence the outcome, with Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli poised to capitalize on PSG's attacking tendencies on the flanks.

Dive Deeper:

• PSG and Arsenal are competing for a place in the Champions League final, with PSG having edged a 1-0 win in the first leg through a goal by Ousmane Dembele. This match will determine who joins Inter Milan in the final after their surprising victory over Barcelona.

• The first leg was marked by missed scoring opportunities from both teams, suggesting the potential for a high-scoring game if either side capitalizes on their chances in the second leg.

• PSG has shifted from a star-heavy lineup to a more developmental squad, which has paid dividends in both domestic and European competitions, showcasing their strength in counter-attacking play.

• Arsenal, despite an injury crisis, has remained competitive in the Premier League and has reached the semifinals under the guidance of Mikel Arteta, with their journey being commendable regardless of the outcome.

• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was a standout performer in the first leg, frequently fouled by Arsenal's Jurrien Timber, indicating his potential impact in the second leg as PSG looks to exploit counter-attacking opportunities.

• Defensively, PSG's Nuno Mendes has been crucial, effectively marking top players like Mohamed Salah and Bukayo Saka, while Arsenal must rely on Gabriel Martinelli to finish chances better than he did in the first leg.

• Bookmakers have adjusted the odds in favor of Arsenal as the match day approaches, influenced by Dembele's absence from PSG's starting lineup, suggesting a closely contested match at the Parc des Princes.

• With one UEFA Champions League semifinalist now confirmed, Arsenal and PSG will duke it out for the other coveted spot in Munich as the two European giants clash in Paris on Wednesday.

• These two sides played to a thrilling 1-0 PSG victory at the Emirates Stadium last week, with Ousmane Dembele's early goal proving the difference. Both sides missed good chances to change the narrative, leaving it all to play for in the second leg.

• Neither club has ever won the Champions League, a gaping hole in their otherwise long and illustrious history. PSG infamously ditched their star-studded approach for a more developmental squad construction, and it seems to have paid off, trouncing the rest of Ligue 1 while also proving themselves one of Europe's most dangerous sides.

• LIVE BLOG: Follow along with minute-by-minute updates, highlights, and more of PSG vs. Arsenal

• Arsenal, meanwhile, have built a perennial Premier League contender under Mikel Arteta that has reached this far even while enduring a brutal injury crisis through the second half of the season. Their journey to the Champions League semifinals will be praised regardless of the outcome, but defeat would still be a bitter pill to swallow having come so close to what would be truly memorable glory.

• The winner in Paris on Wednesday will join Inter Milan in the final later this month, as the Italian side stunned Barcelona in a thrilling semifinal the day before.

• MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

• PSG vs. Arsenal prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: PSG (+125 on DraftKings)
  • Score prediction: PSG 3-1 Arsenal
  PSG won a low-scoring affair on the road in the first leg, but the game should have ended with a much more explosive result as both teams missed big chances in front of goal.

• An open game very much favours PSG, who are exceptional playing on the counter. They had good chances in the first leg even as Arsenal tried to kill much of the middle of the game with defensive possession.

• The day of the match, the odds have swung quite substantially in favour of Arsenal, with PSG's moneyline selection jumping from +110 to +135, and Arsenal dropping from around 3/1 down to 2/1. That continued just before kickoff as it was revealed Ousmane Dembele would not start for PSG.

• 	DraftKings (USA)
  PSG win	+135
  Draw	+250
  Arsenal win	+200
  Both teams to score	Y: -165 N: +130
  Over / Under 2.5 goals	O: -130 U: -105
  PSG to advance	-475
  Arsenal to advance	+330

  PSG vs. Arsenal match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Parc des Princes (Paris, France)
  • Referee: Felix Zwayer (GER)
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 0-1 PSG (Tue, Apr. 29, 2025 | Champions League)
  MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of PSG vs. Arsenal

• PSG vs. Arsenal best bets

  • Pick: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +130 on FanDuel
  • Pick: Jurrien Timber to be booked
  • Odds: +290 on FanDuel
  Throughout the first leg, especially in the first half, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia had Arsenal full-back Jurrien Timber on roller skates. While PSG's January addition didn't finish the match with an official completed dribble, there's a reason for that...he was repeatedly fouled.

• Timber's four fouls in the opening 20 minutes of play was the most of any player in the Champions League this season, and it was a miracle he wasn't booked as a result. Even with that, Kvara won eight of his 16 ground duels, took three shots, including one that was well saved by David Raya, picked up an assist, had seven touches in the opposition penalty area, and had 10 defensive actions in a comprehensive performance.

• Now at home, where Kvara has claimed three of his four Champions League goal contributions and six of nine overall between league and Europe, he should be able to make good on that first leg showing, especially as Arsenal know they must open themselves up to find a way back level, leaving PSG to open on the counter where they have impressed this year.

• PSG vs. Arsenal prop bet

  • Pick: Gabriel Martinelli 3+ total shots
  • Odds: +200 on FanDuel
  Nuno Mendes has been utterly brilliant for PSG all season long in the Champions League, pocketing Mohamed Salah in the Round of 16 against Liverpool and doing a fabulous job against Bukayo Saka in the first leg last week. The PSG left-back limited Saka to just one shot and one chance created, partially down to his fabulous defensive work with a nod to Saka's need to help Jurrien Timber defensively against Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

• As a result, Arsenal were forced to build largely down the left, which fed Gabriel Martinelli with chances. The Brazilian had three shots in the first leg at home and should have scored, as he put one huge chance wide (worth an incredible 0.83 xG!) and seeing another huge opportunity saved by Gianluuigi Donnarumma.

• With Arsenal coming into this match down a goal, they will surely feed Martinelli again, especially knowing PSG right-back Achraf Hakimi likes to push very high into the attack. Arsenal often use Saka on the right to recycle defensive possession, and thus Martinelli becomes an outlet on the left. Back him to continue looking for goals as he did in the first leg, and the Gunners will hope he can finish chances better this time around.