Orioles' Gunnar Henderson gets massive $600 million contract update
Context:
Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is projected to receive a potentially massive $600 million contract when he becomes a free agent in 2029, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. Despite the Orioles' disappointing start to the season with a 13-20 record, Henderson remains a key player with a high valuation due to his impressive performance, including a career OPS+ of 139 and 72 home runs in 369 games. The team faces challenges in retaining top talent, as other young stars like Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday are also expected to demand substantial contracts. Henderson, noted for his positional advantage over Juan Soto, has already achieved over 15 WAR in two seasons, with a standout nine-win season outperforming any of Soto's years. The Orioles have yet to show a willingness to offer such lucrative deals, making Henderson's free agency a significant future consideration for the team.
Dive Deeper:
Gunnar Henderson is anticipated to command a contract worth up to $600 million in 2029 when he becomes a free agent, a projection made by ESPN's Jeff Passan, highlighting his significant value to the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite their 13-20 record and trailing the New York Yankees in the American League East, Henderson's performance remains a bright spot for the Orioles, as he continues to impress with a career OPS+ of 139 and 72 home runs.
The Orioles are in a difficult position regarding their young talent, as players like Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday are also set to seek high-value contracts, putting pressure on the team's financial decisions.
Henderson is frequently compared to Juan Soto, and while executives see him as a long-shot to surpass Soto's achievements, his positional play gives him an edge, and he has already surpassed Soto's best season with a nine-win year.
Throughout his career, Henderson has consistently delivered at a high level, and while his current season numbers are slightly lower, he maintains a .260 batting average with a 113 OPS+.
Henderson's free agency is set to occur after the 2028 season when he will be 27, making his future contract discussions a focal point for the Orioles' strategy moving forward.
The Orioles' historical reluctance to offer large contracts adds complexity to retaining Henderson, who is seen as a guaranteed MVP candidate whenever on the field, further emphasizing the significance of his future negotiations.
Things haven't gone as planned for the Baltimore Orioles to start the season, a team that many were expecting to be one of the better in Major League Baseball once again.
At 13-20 overall and 4-6 over their past 10 games, the Orioles already sit five games behind the first-place New York Yankees in the American League East.
The unfortunate reality of the Orioles over the past few years isn't that they haven't lived up to expectations at times, but it's that some of their top young players will likely walk in free agency when the time comes.
With Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, and Gunnar Henderson all expected to get paid handsomely, the Orioles have some tough decisions to make.
Henderson, a guaranteed MVP candidate whenever he's on the field, will be the most expensive. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, that number might be as high as $600 million when he hits free agency in 2029.
“Henderson was the one player mentioned by every executive as the best bet to beat Soto. And even then, executives said, it's a long shot. Henderson debuted at 21 and will reach free agency after the 2028 season at 27. He plays a far more important position than Soto's right field, and even if Henderson does eventually move to third base, the positional advantage still will be true,” Passan wrote.
“In his two full seasons, Henderson has already put up more than 15 WAR, including a nine-win showing last year that was better than any year Soto ever posted. Even then, Henderson needs more years of consistent quality before he can be looking at $600 million, let alone $765 million.”
The 23-year-old has done nothing but swing the bat at a high level throughout his career and has continued to play well this season, despite lower numbers than usual. He's currently hitting .260 with a 113 OPS+.
However, career-wise, he has 72 home runs in 369 games and an OPS+ of 139. Those are the type of numbers that get players big deals, and the Orioles haven't shown the willingness to hand those out yet.