ESPN NFL expert bets against Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen once again
Context:
ESPN's Mike Clay has released his annual projections, and once again underestimates Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen by predicting fewer than 40 total touchdowns for the upcoming season. Despite Allen's record of achieving over 40 touchdowns for five consecutive seasons, Clay forecasts a total of 34 touchdowns in 2025, with 24 passing and 10 rushing. Additionally, Clay anticipates Allen will have fewer passing yards in 2025 than in the previous year. These projections seem questionable given Allen's history of defying expectations, especially with the challenge of leading a mediocre receiving team to the postseason. The consistency of Allen's performance suggests that surpassing Clay's predictions is likely, as he has consistently exceeded expectations in past seasons.
Dive Deeper:
Mike Clay, an ESPN NFL expert, has once again predicted that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen will score fewer than 40 total touchdowns, despite Allen's consistent record of surpassing this number for five consecutive seasons.
Clay projects that Allen will achieve 34 touchdowns in 2025, with 24 through the air and 10 on the ground, which is below Allen's historical performance levels.
In addition to touchdowns, Clay anticipates a decrease in Allen's passing yards for the 2025 season compared to 2024, marking a conservative outlook on Allen's capabilities.
Allen has been known to exceed predictions, having maintained high performance even with a less-than-ideal group of receivers, which challenges Clay's conservative projection.
Despite the seemingly unlikely prospect of Allen maintaining over 40 touchdowns for a sixth consecutive season, his past performance suggests that he is capable of continuing this streak, contradicting Clay's expectations.
With the NFL Draft in the rear view, the next big landmark on the schedule is the NFL schedule release, which is set for May 14th. Ahead of that, though, ESPN's Mike Clay released his annual projections for every team and every player.
While Clay has the Buffalo Bills as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, he continues to underrate Josh Allen. Last season, he projected that Allen would fail to top 40 total touchdowns, which Allen did for the fifth consecutive season, extending his own NFL record to unheard of heights. This year, Clay once again sees less than 40 total scores for Allen.
Clay predicts that the reigning MVP will total 34 touchdowns in 2025, with 24 in the air and 10 on the ground. Clay also projects Allen to have fewer passing yards in 2025 than he had in 2024. These feel like bad bets to make, as Allen will once again be tasked with taking a less-than-optimal group of receivers to the postseason, meaning his numbers will likely be greater than anticipated from Clay. And while another season of 40 touchdowns seems insane to fathom, five years in a row of it felt the same way, as well, and Allen did it.
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