Context:

The NATO summit in The Hague is overshadowed by ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, such as the tentative cease-fire between Israel and Iran, which may affect the discussions more than the ongoing situation in Ukraine. President Trump's demand for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP is a contentious issue, with Spain expressing dissent, potentially threatening alliance unity. Despite these tensions, Secretary General Mark Rutte believes the shared threat from Russia could unite member states. Ukraine's presence at the summit is minimal, with limited discussions on its situation, reflecting differing views on the Russian threat between Trump and European leaders. The summit faces challenges in maintaining a unified stance amidst internal disagreements and questions around the U.S.'s commitment to NATO's Article 5.

Dive Deeper:

• The NATO summit is taking place amid a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, which is expected to dominate discussions, reducing focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This cease-fire, announced by President Trump, could unexpectedly serve as a unifying factor for NATO states by diverting attention from other escalating issues.

• President Trump's insistence on increasing NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%, has caused friction, particularly with Spain, whose Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that such spending levels are incompatible with their economic model. Although some allies have agreed to boost defense investments, how to fund these increases remains unresolved.

• Ukraine will not be a central topic at the summit, unlike previous meetings, despite President Zelensky's attendance. Discussions will focus more on battlefield priorities than on Ukraine's potential NATO membership, with security assistance already provided by allies amounting to $35 billion this year.

• There is growing concern over the Trump administration's commitment to NATO's core principles, especially Article 5, which ensures collective defense among member states. President Trump's ambivalence towards this commitment has added to tensions and uncertainty within the alliance.

• The summit faces internal challenges, with some allies questioning NATO's relevance in addressing broader global threats. However, Secretary General Mark Rutte remains optimistic that the common threat posed by Russia could strengthen alliance cohesion, urging European leaders to trust in American support.