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U.S. Dollar’s Weakness Creates an Opportunity for the Euro. Can It Last?

The New York Times's profile
The New York Times
17h ago

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by President Trump's erratic trade policies, has led to increased interest in European financial assets, offering a potential opportunity for the euro to gain prominence. European officials, attending meetings of the IMF and World Bank, highlighted the region's stability, predictability, and rule of law as attractive qualities for investors. The euro has strengthened significantly against the dollar, raising questions about whether this is a short-term adjustment or a long-term shift. Germany's decision to issue more government debt and the potential for joint European debt issuance are seen as positive developments. However, while optimism about the euro's role is growing, experts caution that Europe still needs further structural changes to solidify its market and economic strength globally.

U.S. Dollar’s Weakness Creates an Opportunity for the Euro. Can It Last?

President Trump's unpredictable trade policies have created market volatility, leading investors to sell off U.S. financial assets, thereby creating an opportunity for European markets to attract more investment.

European officials at the IMF and World Bank meetings emphasized Europe's stability and legal predictability as factors attracting investors, with the euro gaining 5.4% against the dollar since early April.

Historical enthusiasm for the euro, reminiscent of its 1999 introduction, is resurfacing, although previous crises and low returns previously hampered its growth as a dominant currency.

Recent changes in Germany's fiscal policy, allowing more government debt issuance, have been met with investor interest, signaling confidence in euro-denominated assets as safe investments.

There is anticipation of increased debt issuance by European governments to finance military spending, echoing post-pandemic recovery efforts, though such moves face political challenges across member states.

While there is growing optimism regarding the euro's global role, experts warn against overestimating the shift, highlighting the need for Europe to improve its internal market and capital mobility.

Investors are seen diversifying rather than abandoning the dollar entirely, with gold and the Swiss franc also gaining value, reflecting a broader trend of seeking alternatives amidst dollar depreciation.

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