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Under Trump, Stocks Have the Worst Start to a Presidential Term Since 1974

The New York Times's profile
The New York Times
5h ago

During Trump's first 100 days in office, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst start since 1974, with the S&P 500 dropping 7%, largely due to the introduction of sweeping tariffs by his administration. The chaotic rollout of these tariffs, particularly a 25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada, led to significant market volatility, wiping out over $6.5 trillion from public companies' values and sparking fears of stagflation or recession. The tariffs prompted a rapid two-day sell-off in the S&P 500, reminiscent of the financial crisis in 2008, and led to a temporary pause on the most punitive tariffs, which caused a brief market rally. This turmoil also affected the bond and currency markets, with unusual movements indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets, and spurred debates over the U.S.'s financial leadership globally. Despite some optimism about positive trade negotiations, uncertainty persists, paralyzing businesses and leading to short-term investment strategies, as future tariff policies remain unpredictable.

Under Trump, Stocks Have the Worst Start to a Presidential Term Since 1974

Within the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, the S&P 500 experienced a 7% drop, marking the worst start to a presidential term since 1974, primarily due to the administration's implementation of broad tariffs.

The introduction of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, announced in early March, contributed to significant market volatility, culminating in a two-day S&P 500 sell-off comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

The tariffs and subsequent market reaction raised concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, with fears of stagflation or a recession as job growth slowed and inflation cooled, prompting investors to protect their portfolios.

Unusual movements in bond and currency markets before the tariffs took effect highlighted a loss of confidence in U.S. assets, as both the dollar and U.S. government bonds fell, triggering alarm across Wall Street.

Despite a temporary market rally following a 90-day pause on the most punitive tariffs, uncertainty remains high, affecting long-term investment strategies and raising questions about the future of U.S. trade policy.

The administration's approach, including attacks on institutions like the Federal Reserve, further destabilized investor confidence, while claims of positive trade negotiations offered little reassurance amid ongoing market unpredictability.

Short-term economic indicators and earnings reports are being closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts, with analysts warning that continued tariff volatility could have a paralyzing effect on businesses.

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