Context:

President Donald Trump's potential tax hike has drawn parallels to George H. W. Bush's famous 'read my lips: no new taxes' pledge, which he later broke. Experts suggest Trump's proposal to raise taxes on individuals making $2.5 million or more could lead to political repercussions similar to those faced by Bush, who lost re-election in part due to tax policy backlash. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and other conservatives have criticized the idea, warning it might fracture Trump's coalition and hurt small businesses. Despite this, Trump has expressed a willingness to consider the tax increase if it benefits lower and middle-income workers, although fiscal conservatives remain hopeful he will stick to his no-tax-increase campaign promise. The ongoing budget negotiations led by House Speaker Mike Johnson aim to include extensions of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, while ensuring no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security.

Dive Deeper:

• President Trump has indicated support for raising taxes on those earning over $2.5 million, akin to George H. W. Bush's controversial tax reversal after his 'read my lips' promise. This move has sparked fears of repeating Bush's political fallout, which contributed to his re-election defeat.

• The proposed tax increase, raising the rate from 37% to 39.6%, has been met with criticism from conservative figures like Newt Gingrich, who argue that such a move could disrupt Trump's political coalition and negatively impact small businesses.

• Despite the criticism, Trump has signaled he might accept a 'tiny' tax increase if it aids lower and middle-income groups, though he remains cautious of potential backlash reminiscent of Bush's experience.

• Negotiations in Congress, led by House Speaker Mike Johnson, are focusing on finalizing Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' which aims to extend previous tax cuts and fulfill campaign pledges, including no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security benefits.

• Conservative circles, including the Club for Growth, express optimism that Trump will adhere to his campaign's no-tax-increase stance, despite the administration's consideration of tax hikes on the wealthy.

• Political analysts caution that a shift in Trump's tax policy could be detrimental in the upcoming midterm elections, drawing parallels to Bush's loss after his tax policy reversal.

• The White House maintains that Trump's priority is to achieve the largest tax cuts in history, focusing on extending 2017 tax cuts while ensuring tax relief for the working and middle classes.