Context:

As Trump travels to China for a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping (May 13–15), the two nations confront a fragile tariff truce and a broader competition that has reshaped their economies since 2018. Beijing enters with export strength and ongoing investments in advanced manufacturing, while Washington pressures China to lift barriers and ramp up purchases of US goods. The saga features a path from sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports to a shifting mix of pauses and targeted concessions, including past export controls and farm purchases. The Iran conflict adds another layer of risk, with energy security and supply chains looming large as negotiations unfold. The outcome will likely determine whether the tariff dispute moves toward a lasting settlement or another bout of escalation, with implications for global trade and tech supply chains.

Dive Deeper:

• Trump launched a tariff wave in 2018 targeting $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, a move many analysts mark as the formal start of the trade war, while he also imposed levies on other partners to pressure concessions.

• Biden maintained the tariff posture and imposed additional restrictions on Chinese tech firms (notably Huawei) and scrutiny of apps like TikTok, signaling a durable protectionist stance even after the initial Trump actions.

• In 2025, Trump expanded duties to 20% on China and then raised to 34%, triggering widespread disruption for Chinese manufacturers and prompting Beijing to retaliate with duties on US agricultural goods.

• A pivotal October meeting led to China suspending export controls on strategic materials, and Washington agreeing to delay some tariff increases and lift restrictions on certain semiconductors, while China agreed to increase purchases of US farm products.

• Despite a formal tariffs truce, a comprehensive, permanent resolution remains elusive as both sides reassess leverage: Beijing relies on the US market but seeks diversification and innovation to reduce dependence on Western technology.

• China’s export strength persists amid a broader global demand rebound and heavy investments in robotics and domestic chip development, reinforcing its bargaining position in negotiations with Washington.

• The Iran war introduces additional uncertainty, pressuring energy supply chains and testing China’s energy security, with both sides watching how energy diplomacy intersects with trade talks.