Context:

Amid escalating regional hostilities, mediators sought to seal a preliminary US–Iran peace framework as Israel renewed strikes on Beirut, killing three. President Trump urged restraint, touting a near deal that could end the three-month war and spark regional peace, while Iran and its allies warned of consequences if commitments waver. Tehran demands that any accord cover all fronts, including Lebanon, and regional mediators in Doha/Doha-like venues advanced terms that would reopen Hormuz and ease Iran’s oil embargo, though core nuclear issues remain unsettled. Skeptics warn a comprehensive agreement in 60 days is unlikely given past timelines and technical complexity. The dispute continues to hinge on mutual distrust, with Israel wary of Hezbollah and missile threats and Washington balancing pressure with diplomacy as the G7 canvasses de-mining and economic relief measures.

Dive Deeper:

• The Beirut attack targeted the Dahieh district, killing three people and injuring six, with a building destroyed in the southern suburbs of the city.

• Trump posted on social media calling for all sides to stand down, while suggesting the US was close to a peace deal that could bring peace to the region, including Lebanon, and urging no further attacks by Israel or Hezbollah.

• Iranian officials, including Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Gen Mohammad Jafar Asadi, warned that the strikes would not go unanswered and argued that Israel’s actions imperil the final stage of talks, signaling potential military or strategic retaliation.

• Regional mediators, including Qatari diplomats, traveled to Tehran to finalize terms of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen Hormuz to shipping and allow Iran to sell oil, with the US lifting its blockade; nuclear issues would be addressed in a 60-day window toward a broader agreement.

• Israel’s reaction to the emerging deal has been critical, citing gaps on restricting Iran’s ballistic missiles and Hezbollah support, while Prime Minister Netanyahu backs Trump but faces re-election pressure; Hezbollah had previously launched missiles into northern Israel following attacks on Iran.

• Analysts and officials doubt a rapid, two-month resolution, noting that the 2015 nuclear deal took years and involved large technical teams, with skepticism voiced by Alia Brahimi of the Atlantic Council.

• Even if Hormuz reopens, relief to the global economy would be gradual, and infrastructure damaged during the conflict will require months to repair; Trump planned to discuss de-mining the strait at the upcoming G7 summit.