Context:

Yields on U.S. Treasury notes eased modestly as traders awaited key employment data, with the 10-year around 4.37% and the near-term two-year slipping alongside expectations for the Federal Reserve’s trajectory. Market activity followed a downbeat session after oil prices stabilized and concerns about the U.S.-Iran situation tempered risk. Investors awaited the April jobs report and unemployment rate to gauge whether labor momentum could alter rate expectations. The coming data are expected to show slower payroll gains but a steady jobless rate, influencing the Fed’s policy path in the near term. Oil and other macro signals also fed the cautious posture ahead of the releases.

Dive Deeper:

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than 2 basis points to 4.3682% as of 5:30 a.m. ET, with the 2-year yield slipping 2 basis points to 3.8929% and the 30-year yield easing to 4.9524%.

• Treasury moves followed a prior session where yields rose as oil prices trimmed losses amid ongoing uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict, with WTI trading around $94.43 a barrel.

• Upcoming data include the April nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as traders assess implications for the Fed’s rate trajectory.

• Initial consensus estimates point to a payroll rise of about 62,000 in April, after March’s 178,000 gain, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain at 4.3%.

• The Department of Labor reported 200,000 weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended May 2, which was up from the prior week but below economists’ 206,000 estimate.

• Oil price movements and the trajectory of employment data are central to determining whether momentum in rates persists or stalls as investors weigh the Fed’s policy outlook.

• Overall market footing remains cautious, with traders calibrating how upcoming data will shape expectations for future monetary tightening or pauses.