Context:

Under Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s conservative government has overseen a sharp decline in shootings and gang violence since 2022, with shootings down about 80% and deadly gang activity down around 75%, though officials warn gains could be reversed at the polls. The turnaround is attributed to stricter penalties, higher police funding, expanded wiretapping, and lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 14, alongside a tougher immigration stance aimed at curbing gang recruitment and asylum inflows. Despite the gains, election prospects remain uncertain as polls show a close race with left-wing parties leading by a slim margin, while the Liberals could help the coalition cross the threshold for seats. The government frames the results as a hard-won effort requiring continued action to finish the job of restoring security. The outlook hinges on voters’ assessment of whether the current approach can be sustained post-election.

Dive Deeper:

• From 2022 to August 2026, shootings dropped from 391 incidents with 62 deaths to 48 shootings with 12 deaths, reflecting an 80% decline in shootings during the conservative leadership.

• Deadly gang violence is claimed to have fallen by 75% in the same period, as authorities credit a combination of tougher penalties, increased police funding, and expanded surveillance.

• Policy measures cited include expanding the use of wiretapping and reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 14 to disrupt gang recruitment and turf warfare.

• The government has also pursued a stricter immigration regime, raising wage thresholds, tightening rules for highly qualified entrants, and funding self-deportation efforts, with asylum applications forecast at about 4,200 this year.

• Analyses from the Financial Times highlighted the rarity of mainstream parties advancing on hard-line crime issues in Europe, noting the unlikely coalition dynamics and nationalist support aiding the push.

• Public opinion remains mixed: a Norvus poll shows the left-wing bloc narrowly ahead, while the Liberal Party’s progress to parliamentary thresholds could shift the balance in the government’s favor.

• A Sweden Democrat figure warned of a ‘Winston Churchill effect,’ suggesting that perceived victory in war could prompt voters to revert to the left, complicating re-election hopes.