Context:

Texas’s Republican Senate primary is a tight three-way contest, with Attorney General Ken Paxton maintaining a narrow edge as voters tighten around a May runoff scenario. Momentum centers on Paxton’s alignment with Trump-era priorities and a growing split between younger, MAGA-leaning voters and more traditional conservatives aligned with Cornyn. Paxton’s support appears strongest among the America First bloc, while Cornyn draws more from established party conservatives, shaping a path to potential anti-Paxton consolidation that Hunt challenges. The political environment, buoyed by high Trump favorability, sets the stage for a high-stakes decision as demographics and turnout will be decisive. A UT poll underscores the narrowing gap, underscoring the volatility and the likelihood of a runoff given current standings.

Dive Deeper:

• Paxton leads a three-way GOP Senate race in Texas, with major polls showing him ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Wesley Hunt as voters head toward a potentially decisive May runoff.

• Quantus Insights and other surveys show Paxton maintaining a favorable position among likely Republican primary voters, with Hunt showing momentum but trailing the two frontrunners in most head-to-head projections.

• Polls indicate a generational split: Paxton performs strongest among voters under 65, while the oldest cohort shows a more even or marginal advantage for Cornyn, signaling how demographics could influence the outcome.

• Paxton’s coalition is heavily built from the America First/MAGA segment, which comprises a large share of the Republican electorate and gives him a relative edge over Cornyn in that bloc.

• Cornyn’s strength rests with traditional Republicans and longtime conservatives, but this group constitutes a smaller slice of today’s GOP primary electorate, complicating his path to consolidating anti-Paxton votes.

• Trump remains highly popular with primary voters, a factor that appears to bolster Paxton’s positioning and alignment with the broader political mood driving the primary dynamics.