Context:

Gavin Newsom's proposal to redraw California's congressional districts to favor Democrats faces strong opposition from voters who prefer the existing independent commission. A poll conducted by the Citrin Center and Possibility Lab at UC Berkeley and Politico reveals that 64% of California voters support the current system, while only 36% favor Newsom's plan. The proposal involves a special election to approve a partisan map, potentially eliminating four of the nine Republican-held seats, with plans to return to the independent commission after the 2030 census. Despite the Democratic legislature backing the proposal, the independent commission has gained popularity since its establishment in 2008. Newsom's efforts, which appear to be aimed at a broader national audience, could impact his future political ambitions, particularly if he loses at the ballot box or in court.

Dive Deeper:

• Governor Gavin Newsom's plan to redraw congressional districts in California aims to favor Democrats by establishing a new partisan map, which would impact Republican-held seats. The plan will be subject to a special election, although it faces considerable opposition from the public who prefer the independent commission.

• A recent poll by the Citrin Center and Possibility Lab at UC Berkeley and Politico surveyed 1,445 registered voters, showing that 64% of them prefer the current independent commission system for redistricting, while only 36% support Newsom's initiative. This indicates a strong preference among voters to maintain an unbiased approach.

• California Democrats, while supporting Newsom's plan, have committed to not completely dismantling the independent commission. They propose a temporary shift to the legislature-approved maps for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections, with a return to the commission's authority after the 2030 census.

• The independent commission, established in 2008, was a significant reform to prevent partisan gerrymandering by transferring the power of drawing district maps from lawmakers to a citizen group. This system has gradually gained public approval over the years.

• Newsom's gerrymandering efforts are seen as part of a broader strategy to appeal to a national audience, potentially affecting his aspirations for higher office. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Democrats have previously manipulated the independent commission process, raising questions about its true impartiality.