Context:

Poland has accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating a massive arson attack that destroyed the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw in May 2024, affecting 1,400 small businesses, many of which were owned by members of the Vietnamese community. Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that some suspects are in custody while others have been identified and are being pursued, with cooperation from Lithuania, where further acts of diversion were carried out. This incident is viewed as part of a broader 'hybrid war' strategy by Russia, characterized by anonymous and deniable attacks aimed at destabilizing opponents without constituting an overt act of war. NATO supports Poland's view, suggesting that Russia's actions are intended to deter Western nations from backing Ukraine militarily. Despite these serious allegations, Moscow has consistently denied involvement in sabotage across Europe, maintaining its stance against the accusations made by Poland and NATO countries.

Dive Deeper:

• In May 2024, a devastating fire at Warsaw's Marywilska shopping centre destroyed 1,400 small businesses, impacting a significant portion of Warsaw's Vietnamese community, with many losing crucial documents and cash stored on-site for security reasons.

• Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the fire was a result of arson orchestrated by Russian special services, with some responsible parties already apprehended and others identified and being sought internationally, notably with assistance from Lithuania.

• The incident is considered part of a 'hybrid war'—a method of warfare where states engage in covert operations to damage opponents without direct military conflict—used by Russia to destabilize European nations and deter military support for Ukraine.

• NATO aligns with Poland's assessment, viewing these actions as punitive measures by Russia against Western countries for their support of Ukraine amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions following Russia's 2022 invasion.

• Russia has consistently denied accusations of sabotage across Europe, including this particular incident, while maintaining its stance against the allegations from Poland and other NATO countries about its involvement in covert warfare.

• The fire at Marywilska led to a temporary shopping centre being established three months later, allowing approximately 400 traders to resume operations, while a new site, Modlinska 6D, was opened in October 2024 for relocating affected businesses.

• Lithuanian authorities have previously accused Russian military intelligence of similar arson attacks, such as the one on an Ikea branch in Vilnius, reinforcing Poland's claims of Russian involvement in orchestrated sabotage efforts.