Context:

The political landscape in the Philippines is dominated by a fierce power struggle between President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sara Duterte, two members of the nation's most influential political families. Their former alliance, which led to a landslide victory in the 2022 presidential election, has fractured, marked by mutual accusations and a battle for dominance. The recent mid-term elections, a critical indicator of national opinion, delivered disappointing results for Marcos, with only half of the winning senators supporting his camp, potentially weakening his administration. The deteriorating relationship has led to attempts by Marcos to impeach Sara Duterte, a move complicated by the need for significant Senate support and the enduring public backing for the Dutertes in many regions. With the impeachment trial expected to start in July, both camps are intensifying their efforts to sway senators, setting the stage for a turbulent political year in the Philippines.

Dive Deeper:

• President Marcos and Vice-President Duterte, once allies, are now embroiled in a bitter feud, with the mid-term elections serving as a critical measure of their political strength. The results were unfavorable for Marcos, as only six of the twelve elected senators were from his camp, indicating a potential decline in his authority.

• The rift between Marcos and Duterte has escalated to an impeachment attempt against Duterte, driven by Marcos’s allies, following his controversial decision to send Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court. This move has intensified the animosity between the two factions.

• The political dynamics in the Philippines are deeply rooted in familial power structures, with the Marcos and Duterte families being particularly dominant. Both families have a long-standing history in politics, and their influence is evident in the current political climate.

• Public sentiment has not favored President Marcos recently, with his economic management criticized and his handling of the Duterte extradition portrayed as a betrayal. This has impacted his popularity and complicated his efforts to secure support for the impeachment.

• The senators, many of whom come from influential families or have celebrity backgrounds, hold significant sway in the impeachment process, and their loyalty is not guaranteed despite official alliances. Their decisions are likely to be influenced by public opinion and their own political ambitions.

• The surprise election of liberal senators Bam Aquino and Francis Pangilinan suggests a desire for alternatives to the Marcos-Duterte feud, potentially complicating Marcos's impeachment efforts but also offering a possible avenue for gaining support.

• The upcoming impeachment trial, unprecedented in the Philippines' political history, is set to be a contentious and unpredictable affair, with both sides engaging in intense lobbying to secure the necessary votes in a Senate where no president or vice-president has ever been successfully impeached.