Context:

Germany's new coalition government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, faces a significant challenge in dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has gained substantial support and is now the second-largest party in the German Parliament. The coalition, composed of the center-right Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, is contemplating various strategies to address the AfD's influence, including the possibility of legal actions or even a ban, while balancing the risk of fueling the party's anti-establishment narrative. The domestic intelligence service's recent designation of the AfD as an extremist organization has intensified the situation, complicating the coalition's efforts to maintain parliamentary control. With a narrow majority, the coalition must ensure strong discipline to pass legislation, as the AfD could exploit internal divisions or introduce disruptive proposals. The coalition's approach will be critical as the AfD's popularity continues to rise, especially with upcoming state-level elections that could further alter the political landscape.

Dive Deeper:

• The coalition government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is grappling with how to manage the powerful and politically toxic AfD, which has risen to become the second-largest party in Parliament after a poor performance by the Social Democrats in the February elections.

• The domestic intelligence service's decision to classify the AfD as an extremist organization has escalated tensions, though the classification is temporarily on hold pending a lawsuit filed by the AfD, leaving the coalition to navigate complex legal and political challenges.

• Chancellor Merz's initial failure to secure enough votes in Parliament highlights the coalition's fragile majority and the potential for the AfD to exploit weaknesses, necessitating tight discipline and cooperation within the coalition to pass legislative measures.

• The AfD's strategy includes positioning itself as a victim of an undemocratic establishment and potentially introducing legislation that mirrors the Christian Democrats' proposals to create division and disrupt the coalition's agenda.

• There is a risk that internal rifts within the coalition could lead to some members seeking cooperation with the AfD on shared policy views, particularly on issues like spending and immigration, which could undermine the coalition's stability.

• The coalition is exploring options to limit the AfD's influence, such as restricting public funding and removing its members from civil-service positions, but these measures carry the risk of further legal battles and public controversy.

• The outcome of upcoming state-level elections and the AfD's continued polling success will significantly impact the coalition's strategies and the broader political dynamics in Germany, with the potential for the AfD to strengthen its foothold in German politics.