The cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine have paradoxically increased the danger to Ukrainian civilians, with a significant rise in civilian casualties due to intensified Russian missile and drone strikes. Since the talks began in February, the number of civilian deaths has surged, with 848 casualties in just the first 24 days of April, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year. Analysts note that an escalation of violence during negotiations is common as warring parties attempt to gain strategic advantage before a cease-fire takes effect. This escalation has led to greater destruction in targeted Ukrainian cities, overwhelming air defenses and increasing pressure on the Ukrainian government to concede to unfavorable terms. The ongoing hostilities have also exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, displacing an additional 40,000 Ukrainians and further straining the already substantial number of internally displaced persons in the country.

The cease-fire talks have coincided with a significant increase in Russian strikes, resulting in a 46% rise in civilian casualties compared to the same period last year. In the first 24 days of April alone, 848 civilians were reported killed or wounded.

Russian military tactics have shifted towards focusing intense bombardment on single cities or towns, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and leading to higher casualties and destruction.

Historically, violence tends to escalate during cease-fire negotiations as opposing forces seek to solidify their positions before any potential truce, a pattern observed in previous conflicts involving Russia, including actions in Ilovaisk and Debaltseve.

The surge in violence has heightened tension and fear among Ukrainians, with many residents expressing concerns that the attacks are intended to force Ukraine into accepting unfavorable peace terms.

The humanitarian impact is severe, with about 40,000 additional people displaced due to the recent attacks, contributing to the 10.7 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine since the conflict began.

A notable increase in missile and drone attacks was observed following a phone call between President Trump and the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, with Russia launching 4,694 attacks in the 30 days post-call, a stark rise from the previous month.

Despite the ongoing negotiations, accusations of cease-fire violations persist on both sides, with limited truces failing to halt the violence, as evidenced by continued drone strikes and missile barrages in cities like Kyiv, Sumy, and Kryvyi Rih.