Context:

Lebanon is urgently seeking clarity on whether it is included in a regional ceasefire amid mixed signals from international actors as Israel continues strikes against Hezbollah targets. While some messages suggest Lebanon could be part of the truce, others, including Israel, say the two-week agreement does not apply to Lebanon, prompting Beirut to monitor the situation over the next hours. The ambiguity comes as Lebanon endures displacement, humanitarian strain, and an economic setback attributed to the conflict, with hopes that Lebanon will eventually be included. The international response and ongoing violence keep the path to regional stability uncertain, with markets reacting to the ceasefire talks and broader Middle East dynamics.

Dive Deeper:

• Lebanon's economy minister Amer Bisat told CNBC that signals about Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire are inconsistent, requiring urgent clarification over the next few hours.

• Israel has stated that the two-week ceasefire does not cover Lebanon, while there were mixed reports about Lebanon being part of the pause, creating uncertainty for Beirut.

• There is high-level diplomatic engagement around the status, including remarks from Pakistani prime minister and statements from France and the UN, but the situation remains unsettled.

• The conflict has displaced over 1.1-1.2 million people in Lebanon, a country of about five million, intensifying humanitarian pressures.

• Lebanon estimates the five-week fighting has shaved approximately 5-7% off its GDP in that short period, erasing earlier signs of recovery in 2025.

• Beirut says the country feels coerced into the war by external parties and expresses a desire for an eventual inclusion in a lasting ceasefire, hoping for a positive end to hostilities.