President Trump floated a tantalizing idea last month: sending Americans rebate checks funded by his new tariffs. But don't start planning how to spend that money just yet.

"We have so much money coming in, we're thinking about a little rebate," Trump said July 25 before heading to Scotland. The White House claims tariffs announced in April have already raised $100 billion.

Trump offered zero details except that income limits would apply and Congress would need to approve it—a massive hurdle for any spending proposal.

The $600 Check Proposal

Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley jumped on Trump's vague promise, introducing the American Worker Rebate Act. His bill would send at least $600 to individuals, with families of four getting up to $2,400.

"My legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump's tariffs are returning to this country," Hawley said.

The checks would phase out for joint filers making over $150,000 and singles earning above $75,000—reduced by 5% for every dollar over those limits. If tariff revenues beat projections, the rebates could grow.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects tariffs to generate $300 billion annually. But economists warn these same tariffs could spike inflation and cost families thousands more in higher prices, especially without trade deals with Canada and Mexico.

Why This Probably Won't Happen

Reality check: Republican lawmakers hate spending money, even when it's politically popular. The COVID stimulus checks cost $164 billion—money many GOP members now regret spending.

Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson already shot it down: "People love spending money and granting new tax cuts when we can't afford it. We're $37 trillion in debt and running $2 trillion a year deficits—some time, this madness just has to end."

Trump himself seems torn. He mentioned rebates but also said his priority is paying down that $37 trillion debt. You can't do both with the same money.

Rebate vs. Stimulus: What's the Difference?

A tax rebate reimburses overpaid taxes. A stimulus check is straight-up free money from Uncle Sam. Hawley's bill calls it a rebate but structures it like the 2020 stimulus—direct payments based on income, not taxes paid.

The bill needs to pass both chambers by year's end or it dies. Given Republican skepticism about spending and Democratic opposition to anything Trump-related, those checks look increasingly unlikely.

The Bottom Line

Trump loves floating ideas that sound good but lack details. This rebate plan fits that pattern perfectly. Without serious Congressional support—which doesn't exist—these checks remain campaign talking points rather than real policy.

If you're counting on tariff rebates to pay bills, it’s better to make other plans. The money Trump's tariffs are "bringing in" comes from American importers who pass costs to consumers. Sending some back as rebates just shuffles money around while prices rise.

File this under "things politicians say that probably won't happen." Your mailbox will likely stay check-free.