Several batches of polling data are pointing to the same thing: Democrats are going to enjoy big gains in Congress after the November midterms. Here is an inside look at what the polls and analysis are signaling about what lies ahead as the midterm season kicks into high gear.

Latest Polls Show Democratic Lead Growing

Is a blue wave imminent? Another major poll and its associated analysis are in line with other predictions that the Democrats are likely to win control of at least one chamber of Congress. The latest NBC News poll released on September 25 was analyzed by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, revealing that Democrats are becoming increasingly likely to win control of the House of Representatives.

The crucial midterms are less than six weeks away. As the November 3 deadline approaches, Republicans are growing more concerned that they are going to lose their power in at least one chamber. While it is hard to pinpoint the precise reasons why support for the Republican Party has taken a hit, President Donald Trump is being blamed for the problems.

The president's approval rating is now at an all-time low. The unpopular war with Iran, rising fuel prices, and the overall state of the economy are all issues that Americans have been concerned about in recent months.

Diving deeper into the data, Democrats have a commanding nine-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. According to NBC News' average, this lead has steadily increased since Labor Day. The average is calculated using data from several polls. These numbers demonstrated that 52% of Americans want the Democrats to control Congress, compared to just 43% who prefer that Republicans are in charge on Capitol Hill.

Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey published an analysis predicting that Democrats are likely to gain five to 15 seats in the midterms. This would translate to the party holding between 220 and 230 seats in the House. 218 is the magic number of seats needed to flip the 435-seat House.

Covey noted that "Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won." She went on to say, "But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts."

Some Republicans Beginning to Turn Away from Trump

The GOP currently controls the Senate and the House. When combined with the party's control of the White House, President Trump has been able to push through many initiatives on his agenda.

However, cracks within the GOP are starting to emerge with more regularity as some members have gone public about splitting with Trump. For instance, Florida Republican governor candidate, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, removed mentions of Trump from his campaign website.

The Cook Political Report said that only 22 House races are tossups at this time. The Republicans are in trouble in several districts that they have traditionally controlled, including a handful of GOP districts in Pennsylvania, a district in Texas near the border with Mexico, and recently redistricted ones in Florida.

Although the Democrats are projected to take over the House, they would need to pick up four new seats and maintain their current ones to take control of the Senate. When compared to the House, there are far more Senate races that are going to come down to the wire.

Looking at another set of polling data, an Emerson College poll last week found that Democrats commanded a 53-point to 42-point split when voters were asked what party they favored. Democrats enjoyed a 12-point lead in a September 23 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. RealClear Polling's average showed a nearly nine-point lead for the Democrats. RealClear Polling takes data from several polls, including Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult, and Economist/YouGov.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave."

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