Context:

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has doubled tariffs on India as a punitive measure for India's continued purchase of Russian oil, increasing them from 25% to 50%. This action has raised concerns among foreign policy experts that India may be driven closer to Russia and China, potentially weakening its longstanding alliance with the U.S. India, which imports a significant amount of Russian oil, has indicated it will not halt these purchases, possibly leading to a strategic realignment towards its BRICS partners. The tariffs coincide with India's significant trade relationship with the U.S., comprising $212.3 billion in goods and services in 2024, and have resulted in India planning to pause its purchase of U.S. defense equipment. Analysts warn that the tariff hike could severely damage U.S.-India relations, likening the situation to the fallout from India's nuclear tests in 1998, and might take decades to rebuild trust between the two nations if not resolved thoughtfully and diplomatically.

Dive Deeper:

• President Trump has increased tariffs on India in response to its ongoing purchase of Russian oil, doubling the rate to 50%. This move is intended as a punitive measure but risks pushing India closer to U.S. adversaries like Russia and China.

• India is a major importer of Russian oil, with an average of 1.75 million barrels per day, which complicates the U.S.'s expectation for India to cease such purchases abruptly. The tariffs threaten to destabilize a key strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific region.

• India is a significant trading partner of the U.S., with trade reaching $212.3 billion in 2024. It has also been a substantial customer for U.S. defense equipment, totaling $24 billion in purchases since 2008, but is now considering halting further defense acquisitions from the U.S. due to the tariff hikes.

• The tariffs could drive India to rely more heavily on its BRICS partners, further distancing it from U.S. strategic interests. India's longstanding relationships within BRICS, particularly with Russia, could be strengthened as a counterbalance against the U.S.'s recent actions.

• Experts express concern that the increased tariffs could mark a significant setback for U.S.-India relations, reminiscent of the diplomatic rift following India's nuclear tests in 1998. There is fear that the trust between the two nations may be eroded, complicating future alliances and cooperative efforts.