Context:

India conducted a series of missile and air strikes on nine sites across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting supposed militant positions, which has significantly heightened tensions in the region. Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets and reported casualties, though these claims remain unconfirmed by India, which accuses Pakistan-based terrorists of a recent attack in Pahalgam. This escalation is reminiscent of past confrontations, such as the 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks, but with a broader scope of targets, signaling a more expansive response from India. Experts anticipate an inevitable retaliation from Pakistan, potentially leading to a limited conventional war unless diplomatic efforts succeed. Amidst these rising tensions, there is also an internal political dimension at play in Pakistan, where the military seeks to regain public support amid a fractured political landscape and anti-military sentiments following Imran Khan's imprisonment.

Dive Deeper:

• India launched air strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, citing credible intelligence of militant positions, in response to a recent militant attack in Pahalgam, which it attributes to Pakistan-based terrorists.

• The strikes, conducted over a 25-minute period, targeted infrastructure of militant groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen, marking an expansion beyond previous patterns of targeting solely Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

• Pakistan reported that six locations were hit and claimed to have shot down five Indian jets, with significant casualties, though these claims have not been confirmed by India, which reported casualties on its side due to Pakistani shelling.

• Experts believe Pakistan's retaliation is inevitable, with the possibility of escalating into a broader conflict, although there is hope for de-escalation through diplomatic channels as seen in past crises such as the 2019 Pulwama incident.

• Internally, Pakistan's military faces a shifting public opinion landscape, with less support compared to previous conflicts, potentially influencing its response strategy and aiming to regain public backing amidst political unrest.

• India has taken additional measures such as closing a main border crossing, suspending a water-sharing treaty, and expelling diplomats, reflecting a strategy of balancing escalation with restraint, while seeking to re-establish deterrence.

• The situation remains volatile with the potential for further escalation, making it one of the most dangerous crises between the nuclear-armed neighbors since 2002, emphasizing the critical role of crisis diplomacy in preventing a larger conflict.