Context:

Recent extreme winter weather in the U.S. has sparked debate about the relationship between these events and climate change, as record low temperatures and snowstorms challenge the notion of a warming climate. Meteorologists highlight the complex interactions of the polar jet stream and Polar Vortex, which remain poorly understood, particularly regarding how Arctic warming influences cold outbreaks. Despite the harsh winter conditions, experts suggest that such cold events are likely to persist even as overall winter temperatures rise due to climate change. Moving forward, researchers aim to deepen their understanding of atmospheric patterns to improve winter weather forecasts amid ongoing climate shifts.

Dive Deeper:

• In late January 2026, a winter storm affected over 30 states, resulting in more than 120 fatalities and raising questions about climate change amid extreme cold temperatures.

• Record-breaking low temperatures were reported from Texas to New York, including 38 low minimums and 45 low maximums between January 23 and February 2, while some regions, like Ronald Reagan National Airport, recorded nine consecutive days below freezing.

• An international study from 2025 found that cold winter events will continue for decades, despite overall warming, due to the displacement of cold air by Arctic heat waves.

• Scientists are investigating how warming oceans and the Polar Vortex interact with weather systems, with recent studies indicating that the frequency of midlatitude cold extremes has decreased since 1990.

• Despite the recent severe winter weather, experts assert that the long-term trend of human-caused global warming remains dominant, with climate models projecting a continued decline in cold extremes as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.

• The confusion surrounding winter weather and climate change stems from a lack of consensus in the scientific community regarding the mechanisms of atmospheric circulation and their impacts on weather patterns.