How to trash an economic superpower in 100 days
In the first 100 days of his second term, President Donald Trump has implemented an aggressive tariff policy that has significantly impacted the US economy, drawing comparisons to historical economic crises. These tariffs have effectively increased consumer costs and initiated a global trade war, isolating the US and prompting a massive sell-off of American assets by global investors. Despite low unemployment and cooling inflation, the uncertainty around tariffs has elevated the risk of a recession, with consumer confidence and corporate earnings guidance both taking a hit. Public sentiment has turned increasingly negative, with a majority of Americans believing that Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions and increased the cost of living. The looming threat of a recession is causing companies to adjust operations and consumers to reduce spending, further exacerbating economic instability.
President Trump's second term is marked by a severe tariff agenda that has isolated the US in a global trade conflict, likened to economic plagues due to its potential to surpass the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The tariffs, which function as a substantial tax increase on American consumers, have led to a 'sell America' trend where global investors are withdrawing from US assets, resulting in a loss of trillions in market value.
Despite some positive economic indicators like low unemployment and reduced inflation, the long-term effects of the tariffs are expected to heighten the risk of a recession, with economic forecasters predicting a recession likelihood ranging from 50% to 70%.
Public opinion is increasingly critical of Trump's policies, with a CNN poll indicating that 59% of Americans feel the economic conditions have worsened and 60% noticing an increase in the cost of living due to the tariffs.
Consumer confidence is declining as inflation expectations reach their highest levels since 1981, leading to reduced spending and slowing economic growth, as evidenced by airlines cutting flights and companies reducing earnings forecasts.
The imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese imports has drastically reduced ocean container bookings from China to the US, demonstrating the significant impact of the tariffs on international trade.
Trump's promise of revitalizing American manufacturing is met with skepticism, as economic indicators and public sentiment suggest that the country is undergoing a period of economic instability and uncertainty.