Context:

The NBC News polling average tracks public preference for which party should control Congress ahead of the 2026 midterms, currently showing a notable edge for Democrats. The latest update, as of Sept. 21, 2026, indicates a roughly 9-point gap in congressional ballot preference, reflecting the prevailing political environment and voter sentiment. The methodology combines multiple polls across adult, registered voter, and likely voter samples to present a cohesive view of the race. The result suggests momentum for one party, with implications for campaign strategies and voter turnout as the election approaches. Looking ahead, the data underscore how shifts in public opinion could influence control outcomes in the near term.

Dive Deeper:

• The piece presents the NBC News polling average as a key indicator of which party voters prefer to control Congress in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms.

• As of the last update on September 21, 2026, the polling average shows a 9-point gap between Democrats and Republicans in favor of Democrats on congressional ballot preference.

• The methodology note explains that the average blends results from different sample populations (adults, registered voters, likely voters) to normalize differences before combining them.

• Polls with partisan affiliations are identified, and readers are directed to the full methodology for how weights and samples are handled.

• The article emphasizes that the polling environment informs strategic considerations for campaigns and expectations about which party may gain or defend control as voters respond to current political dynamics.