As Canada's Election Day approaches, the gap between Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has narrowed, with the Liberals holding a slight lead of 42% to 39% on average. Despite this tightening, the Liberals are still favored to win due to the distribution of their support across more parliamentary districts, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, where they hold significant leads. The Conservative Party's strength in the Western provinces does not translate into enough seats to overcome the Liberals' advantage in Canada's 'first past the post' system. The shift in voter priorities from U.S.-Canada relations to economic issues and affordability has also benefited Carney, given his economic credentials and recent replacement of Justin Trudeau. Voter sentiment has turned against the Conservatives following aggressive actions by President Trump, and Carney's leadership has reassured voters seeking change, keeping the Liberals in a strong position despite a decade in power.

The Liberal Party's lead over the Conservative Party has shrunk to an average of 3 percentage points, but they still appear poised to win due to the advantageous distribution of their support across more districts, particularly in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.

The Conservative Party, despite winning the popular vote in the last two elections, struggles to convert national polling success into seats due to concentrated support in less populated Western provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Canada's 'first past the post' electoral system benefits parties like the Liberals, who maintain widespread but not necessarily majority support across numerous districts, allowing them to secure more seats in the House of Commons.

Economic issues and affordability have become more central to voters as the focus on U.S.-Canada relations wanes, with Carney's background in central banking enhancing his and the Liberal Party's appeal on these matters.

Voter sentiment has shifted following President Trump's aggressive policies towards Canada, with Mark Carney's ascension to Liberal leadership in March aiding the party's turnaround, as he is seen as a capable leader against U.S. threats.

Despite the Conservatives being favored by voters seeking change, Carney's leadership style and campaign have reassured a significant portion of the electorate that he represents a sufficient departure from former leader Justin Trudeau.

Recent polling indicates that while a majority of Canadians now prioritize the country's direction over international relations, the Liberals still retain a quarter of those favoring change, with Carney's approach to leadership satisfying these voters.