Turns out deporting your customer base isn't great for business.

Constellation Brands, the company behind America's favorite beers Modelo and Corona, just slashed its financial outlook for the second time, and they're not even trying to hide why. Hispanic consumers - who make up half their business - are staying home, scared to leave their houses for a beer run.

The stock dropped 7% Tuesday after the company admitted that sales declines among Hispanic customers "were more pronounced than general market declines." That's corporate-speak for "our customers are terrified and it's killing our bottom line."

Hispanic Consumers Are Terrified

CEO Bill Newlands laid it out pretty clearly: Hispanic consumers aren't going out to eat, they're having fewer social gatherings at home, and they're making fewer trips to buy beer. When they do venture out, they're spending less. The company now expects beer sales to drop 2% to 4% this fiscal year, after previously predicting growth.

Dave Williams from Bump Williams Consulting didn't mince words about what's happening. "A lot of Hispanic consumers are apprehensive to leave their house or deviate from their routine," he told Yahoo Finance. The "abruptness of this slowdown," he noted, points directly to "recent ICE raids or deportation scares."

People are so afraid of being detained or deported that they won't even go buy a six-pack. That's the reality of Trump's America for millions of people.

Bad Timing For Beer Brands

This is particularly brutal timing for Constellation. Modelo Especial just became America's bestselling beer in 2023, finally knocking Bud Light off its throne. Now, just as they should be celebrating market dominance, they're watching their core customers disappear - not to competitors, but to fear.

The numbers are ugly across the board. Beer shipment volumes fell 3.3% for Constellation. They've cut their earnings expectations from $12.60-$12.90 per share down to $11.30-$11.60. Operating income growth is expected to decline 7% to 9%, when they'd previously predicted it might actually grow.

Other Contributing Factors

Sure, the beer industry has other problems. Americans are drinking less overall - only 54% of adults drink alcohol now, the lowest since polling began in 1939. Young people are choosing cannabis over beer, health-conscious consumers are cutting back, and everyone's feeling the pinch of inflation.

But Constellation's problems are clearly different. When your CEO specifically calls out that Hispanic consumers - your primary customer base - are afraid to leave their homes, that's not a marketing problem or a taste preference issue. That's a direct consequence of immigration policy creating a climate of fear.

"The industry has never faced as much pressure as it does today," says Amanda Paul-Garnier from Bottle Raiders. True enough, but Constellation's pressure is unique. Their competitors like Molson Coors are struggling too, posting a 7% decline in volume. But they're not dealing with half their customer base being too scared to shop.

Adding insult to injury, Constellation's also getting hit with tariffs since they import their beer from Mexico. So, they're getting squeezed on both ends - their Mexican-made products cost more to bring in, and their Hispanic customers are too frightened to buy them.

The Irony Of The Situation

The irony here is thick enough to pour. Modelo and Corona have become as American as apple pie - or at least as American as Budweiser used to be. These brands succeeded by embracing America's growing Hispanic population, building a business on the country's changing demographics. Now they're learning what happens when that population is targeted by government raids.

Williams noted that the suddenness of the sales decline suggests this is more about immediate fear from ICE raids than long-term structural changes. That means every time there's a new raid, every time there's another viral video of families being separated, Constellation's sales take another hit.

This is what economic nationalism actually looks like in practice. It's not bringing back manufacturing jobs or protecting American workers. It's American companies losing money because their customers are too terrified to go shopping. It's the bestselling beer in America watching sales crater because half their customers won't risk a trip to the store.

The company's trying to sound optimistic, talking about "navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment" and "volatile consumer purchasing behavior." But let's call this what it is: a self-inflicted economic wound caused by policies that terrorize millions of consumers.

When people are too scared to buy beer, something's deeply broken in America. And no amount of corporate jargon can hide that truth.

Friendly Reminder:
If you’re struggling with alcohol, you’re not alone—help is out there. In the U.S., you can call 1-800-662-4357 for free, confidential support 24/7.

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