A study warns that measles could become endemic in the United States within 25 years if childhood vaccination rates continue to decline, predicting up to 51 million cases in that period. The once-eliminated disease has seen nearly 900 cases this year, primarily linked to an outbreak in West Texas with low vaccination rates. The model highlights that a 10% reduction in vaccination rates could result in 11.1 million measles cases, whereas a 5% increase could reduce cases to 5,800. Other diseases like rubella and poliomyelitis could also see significant resurgences if vaccination rates fall drastically. The study underscores the critical need for maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases in the US.

Measles, previously declared eliminated in the US in 2000 due to effective vaccination efforts, risks becoming endemic again if vaccination rates decline, with up to 51 million cases projected over 25 years.

The current year's nearly 900 measles cases are mostly linked to an outbreak in West Texas, an area with a significant unvaccinated population, reflecting the disease's potential spread in under-vaccinated communities.

The study, using data from 2004 to 2023, shows state-by-state vaccination coverage for measles ranging from 87.7% to 95.6%, with at least 95% coverage needed to prevent outbreaks due to the disease's high contagion level.

A 10% decrease in vaccination rates could lead to 11.1 million measles cases in 25 years, while a 5% increase in vaccination could drastically reduce potential cases to 5,800, demonstrating the impact of vaccination coverage on disease spread.

If childhood vaccination drops by 50%, not only measles but also other vaccine-preventable diseases like rubella and poliomyelitis could see millions of cases, leading to significant hospitalizations and deaths.

The analysis stresses the importance of maintaining high vaccination rates to avoid the resurgence of diseases that could cause over 10 million hospitalizations and nearly 160,000 deaths if vaccination efforts wane.

Researchers from prominent universities emphasize that continuing routine childhood vaccinations at high levels is crucial for preventing the reemergence of diseases that have been largely controlled in the US.